I had this vision that it would be possible to toast all small time traders by making the bid/ask vibrate so horribly that nobody could scalp it. Longer term traders or those with bigger tolerance for risk (wider stops) could still trade.
I used to scalp QLD/QID. Don't ask why, it just seemed like the thing to do. Now (Oct 2008) the bid ask is vibrating all over the place like water on a hot skillet. The only thing you can do is place a target in the range of quivering and hope it gets hit. The QQQQ is much more sensible and liquid and tradeable. I am always very curious what the software looks like that drives these things. What inputs are they keyed off of ?
I have learned that QLD etc. do not buy the actual underlying components of the index. Rather they have warrants with other parties who deliver the components to them with a certain amount of time displacement (possibly hours or days ?). Either that or they never own the underlying and have some queer deal with these warrant people.
In any case, you don't express yourself in the marketplace by buying ETFs. You might as well just do spread betting (very popular in the UK so I hear) or just go down t' pub and wager with your mates. Its certainly not investing. Your capital was never used for anything legitimate like paying wages or buying raw supplies. Your profits are only non-sensical gambling in the sphere of derivitaves of fake value.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
saw it coming... and yet ...
I do feel bad that even though I've seen all this shit coming since the March and August crashes of 2007, but I didn't profit off it, and I didn't even avoid all of the damage.
I bought Euros dammit. Amazing (to even the experts) that it would take my head off like this. Nobody saw this massive dislocation coming, and when it came I thought I shouldn't over react, hold on, it won't last forever. and it won't. but....
and now ... to sell (ok, I did a bit) would be crazy because it will snap at any second.
or at least the dollar may snap, that doesn't mean the euro will surge.
what to buy ? honestly, I think about what physical objects have high resale value. Do you think my vinyl 12" collection is going up in value ? ah ... no.
the yen, dammit, I was just about to buy and got all scared (having lost all of my other bets) and now I feel its popped too much. the G7 state that they are worried, its shafting the Japanese who have already been shafted in their stock market and personal pensions.
I am tired of hearing the US citizens whining about their market. The rest of the world has suffered far worst. Actually it was all fake money, so its nice to see those annoying super-Russians cut down to size.
And, as through much of 2008, I feel like I should go short-and-hold because ... those valuations are so cheap now and greed will overwhelm fear any moment.
Not that we aren't fucked, mind. Earnings down the road, consumption and all of that.
Personally I am an immaterial girl (poetic license, I'm a dude of course). And I don't like money really. I think we will eventually evolve past money, but not in this lifetime.
I think we will defintely evolve past this casino-for-a-stock market mentality. Maybe THAT's the capitulation we are waiting for. When the whole generation of gamblers are put out to pasture (self included) and we go back to producing and getting paid for production.
I bought Euros dammit. Amazing (to even the experts) that it would take my head off like this. Nobody saw this massive dislocation coming, and when it came I thought I shouldn't over react, hold on, it won't last forever. and it won't. but....
and now ... to sell (ok, I did a bit) would be crazy because it will snap at any second.
or at least the dollar may snap, that doesn't mean the euro will surge.
what to buy ? honestly, I think about what physical objects have high resale value. Do you think my vinyl 12" collection is going up in value ? ah ... no.
the yen, dammit, I was just about to buy and got all scared (having lost all of my other bets) and now I feel its popped too much. the G7 state that they are worried, its shafting the Japanese who have already been shafted in their stock market and personal pensions.
I am tired of hearing the US citizens whining about their market. The rest of the world has suffered far worst. Actually it was all fake money, so its nice to see those annoying super-Russians cut down to size.
And, as through much of 2008, I feel like I should go short-and-hold because ... those valuations are so cheap now and greed will overwhelm fear any moment.
Not that we aren't fucked, mind. Earnings down the road, consumption and all of that.
Personally I am an immaterial girl (poetic license, I'm a dude of course). And I don't like money really. I think we will eventually evolve past money, but not in this lifetime.
I think we will defintely evolve past this casino-for-a-stock market mentality. Maybe THAT's the capitulation we are waiting for. When the whole generation of gamblers are put out to pasture (self included) and we go back to producing and getting paid for production.
Monday, October 6, 2008
The next time you are thinking "well things seem ok, maybe we'll get out of this alive. thank god I didn't panic and sell back there when fear was pandemic" .... on that day .... sell something.
Me, I'm all "money" (whatever that is):
%40 euros (grrrrrrr)
%50 $ (the dollar will survive for a while longer. it has to)
%10 gold (who knows)
Wishing I had followed my impulse to buy JPY last week. I'm trying not to trade currencies. I don't really understand them enough.
I've enjoyed being all cash for a while now. but the demon of financial armageddon doesn't like cash either, and he will hunt me down and destroy that too.
How's this for scary: CPB Cambell Soup is holding up quite well today (with major world wide crashes going on). Now what could could savvy investors be thinking ?
Seriously folks, if you haven't thought about the consequences of a complete dislocation in the way that food and retail happens in the western economies ... and how you are going to cope with that dislocation, then do so now.
Have a month worth of food on hand just in case there are interruptions to banking or food. Better safe than sorry.
Me, I'm all "money" (whatever that is):
%40 euros (grrrrrrr)
%50 $ (the dollar will survive for a while longer. it has to)
%10 gold (who knows)
Wishing I had followed my impulse to buy JPY last week. I'm trying not to trade currencies. I don't really understand them enough.
I've enjoyed being all cash for a while now. but the demon of financial armageddon doesn't like cash either, and he will hunt me down and destroy that too.
How's this for scary: CPB Cambell Soup is holding up quite well today (with major world wide crashes going on). Now what could could savvy investors be thinking ?
Seriously folks, if you haven't thought about the consequences of a complete dislocation in the way that food and retail happens in the western economies ... and how you are going to cope with that dislocation, then do so now.
Have a month worth of food on hand just in case there are interruptions to banking or food. Better safe than sorry.
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