America knows how to party

Worldwide Markets Crash ! For days on days without end ! The decoupling theory is dead ! Everybody panic !

The US markets were closed Jan 21 (MLK day). Last week and the week before I said I would sell off some Asia funds. I was just ... waiting for that bounce. I hate mutual funds. I wonder what the NAV will be today. Not pretty. Forget bounces. You can always find safer conditions to make that 4% or whatever bounce. If the thing is moving down, its likely to keep moving down. Yes, there will be a bounce, but only after you sell it. (they can sense fear).

So, the US will crash today. Futures screaming down. Foregone conclusion. Here we go.

On Jan 5th when the jobs report came out way under expected levels (5% unemployment) I just knew what would happen that day. Its would go down. I bought QID (double short the NASDAQ 100) on the open, sold it at the end of the day peak and made $650. Very pleased with myself.

Today, Jan 22nd I figure I'll do the same thing, but you can never be sure. The market opens screaming red, QID already +8%, SKF (short the financials) is +10%. Damn, its already priced in.

Then, Uncle Ben gave us 75 points so we can all go out and get drunk on cheap credit for a little while longer. I understand, he needed to. The stock market may be overvalued, and it may need to move lower, but it can't move lower that fast. That instability will cause financial institutions to fail, and that cascades into the whole economy. Still, I want to short the financials. Just out of ... shadenfreude.

So the market opens and begins to rally.

SKF went from +10% on the open to -10% at one point ! (MBIA) is up +40% because Barrons said "well, they aren't nearly as fucked as Ambac" ! LDK was -15% pre-market, -4.3% by lunch. I did not make any money on these moves.

But now where ? Its lunchtime. Nobody really knows. The VIX (CBOE volatility) is high which means shit is choppy. Right about now I would prefer a nice soft undulating wave in a quiet industry.

But I get the feeling this is the turning point in the plummeting.

The markets (US and Asia) are oversold. Its certainly not the time to short the market. It would be the time to happily take your shorts off the table.

The smartest thing to do now is to buy, but just a bit. The next few days could go up or down. Things may be cheaper later, but they are cheap now. Either way things will go up at some point, and they may even rage up for the rest of the week. So its time to accumulate.