What a hilarious week in the market. We have some determined cows out there. Nobody can tell which way its going to run. This sideways movement : bear trap or is it going to get some traction ? The dollar is the same thing : rally to uh... 1.50 ? before we resume ?
Seems to me its not ready for a real run up (before the inevitable fall back). But I remain hedged both ways. In fact I've been fairly well by simply collecting moves in either direction. Eventually (like right now?) I'm going to get caught holding something the wrong way.
In scalping you learn certain movements. Quivering, lurching up and then selling off hard. Some call them head fakes, and if the market is controllable (small float, big money) then it could be a real head fake by a real person. People love to personify the market or say that smart money will do this or that. And they will, but its also true that its a lot of guys staring at computer screens desperately trying to figure out which way it will go.
There is an attitude now that we should just get the selling over with sharp and quick. OK, are we done now ?
The US appears very rich what with all the developments and shopping centers and displays of corporate wealth . Now we have to imagine/realize that a large amount of that HAS to go under and physically disappear before the accounts are balanced. Cause its borrowed and fictitious. And that will take much longer than 2008. Bennigans/Steak-and-Ale just went down. The look of the country will change by the time its over.
Its a game of musical chairs. The smartest players will still have chairs when the music finally stops, but we go through these rounds. The realization is spreading that there are less chairs than was assumed.
Traders don't mind this. People and banks holding significant amounts of worthless paper would like another round to maybe shift some of this into somebody else's pocket.
Look at the market after 2001. What is now started cannot possibly be less than 4 years. Look at the sideways 70s. That's the optimistic turnout.
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