Thursday, December 4, 2008

if treasuries and USD sell off, what gets bought ?

if everybody decided to sell all of those treasuries and dollars ... what would or COULD they buy ?

the yuan can't handle it and wouldn't want to be pushed up that high. no currency buy itself can handle it. no equity market or sovereign bond market can handle it.

nobody wants the responsibility of all that investment. the problem in the world right now is too much "wealth" and no safe place to put it. (which reminds us how sad it is that poverty and resource-wars still plague the planet)

so reasons the sell off hasn't started:

1. if anybody flinches the game of confidence collapses and an amazing amount of "wealth" is destroyed in a sell off. nobody can step away from the table (except us little guys). any move has to be done very slowly and gradually.

2. there's nothing to sell this stuff off into

3. the big holders (esp. china, japan) benefit from a higher dollar for their export economies and the negative effect it has on commodities. they don't want the dollar to collapse. its in their best interests to keep loading up on this fictitious and nonredeemable wealth. everybody seems to think that the US is a real country with "balances" and obligations. its more like the bank in Monopoly.


disclosure: I gave up on TBT (short treasuries) with a small loss. the bubble gets bigger for now. it will move, the chart looks like it would move, but only as a trade. this is the age of VIX + 60. TBT is a long term move at some point. could be years.

and what a wicked world if everybody jumps on this one and bangs it into the ground. what would happen if the hedge funds put their momentum machines on treasuries and caused it all to squeeze out into some other unstable market ? greed is systematically destroying the financial world.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

That's true, who would have thought of that....but the assets would be sold not to buy anything but to pay for things.

Same way you would sell stocks to pay your taxes....